An Election Post-Non-Mortem

The "Red Wave" Was Another Big Lie

It’s not (Praise be!) a time for an autopsy. The patient—the American Experiment in democracy, freedom, and equality—didn’t die. The ventilator has been removed and the patient is breathing without mechanical assistance, but still in the ICU. A conclusive post-non-mortem awaits the final lab tests (the outstanding elections that will determine which party will control the House), but we know enough to present some important findings.

The Red Wave was another Big Lie.

Losers: Pundits, Extremism, the Supreme Court – and Trump

Among the losers were pollsters and pundits, who predicted a “red wave,” and extremism. Most of the scariest MAGA candidates lost. Trump had called out the mobs on Election Day and they didn’t show up. What if they gave a riot and no one came?

Despite the threats and harassment, people running the elections did show up.

Voters said “no” to chaos, violence, and extremism, but generally only by small margins. The danger remains.

The freedom-shrinking radical right Supreme Court played an important part in the poor showing by Republicans. The Dobbs decision allowing states to take away women’s control of their own bodies was a major factor in turning out Democratic voters.

It is beyond question that by far the biggest loser was Donald J. Trump. Most of his anointed candidates lost. His appearances in the week before the election served to remind people that a vote for any Republican amounted to a vote for Trump. The contrast between Trump and former President Barack Obama at campaign rallies in the closing days was stark and highly favorable for Democrats. Quite simply, Trump is toxic.

“I think if they win, I should get all the credit,” Trump said. “If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.” That classic Trump comment is as wrong as almost everything he says.The Murdoch media have thrown Trump overboard. Fox News had a banner headline reading “Trump blasted across media spectrum over Republican’s midterm performance: ‘Biggest loser tonight.’” The New York Post cover on Wednesday said that “TRUMPTY DUMPTY” had “a great fall.” The Wall Street Journal published an editorial titled, “Trump Is the Republican Party’s Biggest Loser,” and added, “He flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022.”

Winners: Democracy, Hope, Freedom – and Biden

Most of all, democracy won. With a few notable exceptions, those who lost elections have accepted the result. Prior to Trump that wouldn’t be worth remarking upon, but it is in the wake of his multi-pronged attempt to overthrow democracy and his Big Lie that the election was stolen from him, it is highly significant.

Election-denier secretary of state candidates who said they would ignore the choice of their state’s voters if it was for a Democrat and make the Republican the winner were on the ballot in the most critical swing states. How many of them won? Zero.

          Hope won over hate, though far too much of the latter is still out there.

          Freedom won. Abortion was a key issue and many voters understood that the revocation of that right was the start of the erosion of many other hard-won freedoms. Women, young people, people of color, LGBTQ+ people—and straight white men who support the rights of all—came out.

Joseph R. Biden, Jr. was also a big winner. If it’s likely that the Democrats will narrowly lose control of the House, you ask, how can that be a win? I answer, History.

The president’s party almost always loses seats in Congress in midterms. In 15 of the last 20 midterms, the president’s party lost Senate seats. In 19 of the last 20, the president’s party lost House seats, often in very large numbers.

Going back even farther, all the way to Lincoln in 1862, the president’s party has a midterm House record that would get a coach fired: 4 wins and 35 losses. The only times a president’s party gained seats in a midterm in the last 160 years were Theodore Roosevelt in 1902, Franklin Roosevelt in the early stages of the New Deal in 1934, Bill Clinton with a booming economy and public anger at Republicans for impeaching him, and George W. Bush in 2002, in the wake of the 9/11 attack.

Here are the numbers of the net gain or loss of House seats by the president’s party in his first midterm since 1946 (counting Truman in 1946 and Ford in 1974 as first terms):

Truman, 1946       –55

Eisenhower, 1954 –18

Kennedy, 1962       –4

Nixon, 1970          –12

Ford, 1974             –48

Carter, 1978            –15

Reagan, 1982       –26

Bush, 1990              –8

Clinton, 1994         –54

W Bush, 2002         +8

Obama, 2010         –63

Trump, 2018           –40   

The average loss over that three-quarters of a century has been 28 seats. Biden will, in the face of high inflation and a massive disinformation campaign, wind up having done much better than that.

In the days since Election Day, Biden has appeared happier and more at ease than at any time in his presidency. He is confident — even emboldened. His insistence on talking about such philosophical principles as democracy and freedom was mocked by analysts. It worked.

“The Kids are Alright”

Young people won. Exit polls indicate that the 18–29 age bracket constituted approximately 13 percent of the electorate. They voted much more heavily Democratic—some polls indicated 70 percent—than any of the older categories.

“I think young voters recognize that when Roe fell, it may have been the first of many rights to fall,” Jack Lobel of Voters of Tomorrow said on the morning after the election.. “And we are all about progress. We are about the future. We are about equity. I think that really summarizes Gen Z. But the far right is trying to attack us. They’re trying to restrict our rights, and they're trying to take us back in time. We want to go forward.”

That bodes well for America’s future.

States are Different – Very Different

Results in different states varied wildly.

Michigan—where fascists tried to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer and invaded the state capitol armed with AK-15s, the Supreme Court’s revocation of women’s freedom was a major motivator (as it also was in many other states), and there was a Democratic slate of strong women candidates for statewide office—went totally blue, including control of both houses of the legislature for the first time since 1984.

Pennsylvania is another swing state that went blue. Josh Shapiro easily defeated a January 6 insurrectionist in the gubernatorial race. John Fetterman’s victory over TV celebrity Memet Oz was much closer than it should have been, but it very likely will increase the Democratic majority in the Senate to 51 and somewhat lessen the party’s dependence on Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema.

Ohio is located between Michigan and Pennsylvania, but it was, sadly, another story. It is astounding that Tim Ryan, who is an ideal candidate for Ohio and ran a great campaign lost by a wide margin to Trump ass-kisser J.D. Vance.

And Florida was a blowout for Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis trounced former Gov. Charlie Crist and Val Demings, who once appeared to have a fair chance of defeating Marco Rubio for the Senate lost by larger than expected margin. DeSantis’s extreme gerrymandering also netted the Republicans three House seats, without which they probably would not be on the verge of taking a majority. Surely the governor’s “election police” scared some black voters away from the polls, but that cannot explain the magnitude of the “Republican” victory. Democrats must forcefully counter the disinformation about “socialism” that has been spread to Latino voters, but also to make a much greater effort to gain their support in a positive way.

Then there was New York. Gov. Kathy Hochul was not a popular candidate and was a drag on the ticket. Suburban areas around New York City appear to be one of the few places where the fear of crime issue had an impact. Hochul held on, but several House seats were lost and that is likely to be the difference between Republicans taking the House with a very narrow margin and the Democrats keeping control.

In the near term, it seems that both Florida and Ohio are not going to be winnable by a Democrat, but Michigan and Pennsylvania are considerably bluer than they were.

 Wisconsin was a disappointment in the Senate race, where authoritarian “Republican” Ron Johnson’s tactics of exploiting racism and crime allegations to edge out Mandela Barnes. But incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers defeated Trumpist Tim Michels, who had proclaimed that if he was elected, Republicans “will never lose another election.”

Wisconsin remains a battleground state. North Carolina is, too. Democrats must be regretting not putting more resources into promoting Cheri Beasley, who had a real chance to win.

What’s Next?

As Yogi Berra is reputed to have said, “predictions are difficult to make—especially when they’re about the future.”

Assuming that the Democrats wind up with 51 seats in the Senate and the Republicans eke out a tiny majority in the House, there will be no new progressive legislation during the next two years. It could, though, still be a very good period for Democrats.

“Why did Democrats do better than expected?” Texas Senator Ted Cruz asked rhetorically on the night after Election Day. “Because they have governed as liberals.” Exactly. A majority of Americans favor progressive policies and a government that works in their interests, rather than those of the billionaires.

The programs Democrats have already enacted will be getting into full swing in 2023 and beyond. Infrastructure projects—bridges, roads, water systems, electric car charging stations, and more—will be visible across the nation. The CHIPS and Science Act, which has already led to huge new high tech manufacturing investments, will be seen bringing manufacturing back to American soil. Lower prescription drug prices, a 15 percent minimum tax on large corporations, green energy projects, lower medical insurance premiums, and on and on, all of them very popular, will boost Democrats’ approval. The Senate majority will allow more Biden judicial appointments to go through.

Perhaps equally important for the political future, the Republicans with only a very small majority in the House will be at each other’s throats. The “Freedom Caucus” (an Orwellian name if there ever was one) will insist on impeaching every Democrat they can find, shutting down the government, attempting to repeal highly popular Democratic legislation, weakening or ending Medicare and Social Security, trying to pass a nationwide abortion ban, and Devil-knows-what-else.

Beyond that, ultra-narcissist Donald Trump will not go away quietly. His expected Tuesday announcement of a 2024 presidential run will further tear the no-longer-Republican Party apart. He will be indicted, probably for at least three different crimes. That will lead his cult following to rally to him even more strongly. It is likely that he’ll be convicted on some of the charges, but that won’t stop him from running.

In 1920, Socialist Eugene V. Debs, who had been imprisoned for violating Woodrow Wilson’s law against free speech, ran for the presidency from the Atlanta Federal Penitentiary. It is easy to imagine Trump in a jumpsuit the color of his skin and dyed hair saying something similar in 2024 to what Debs did 104 years earlier. “I thank the capitalist masters for putting me here,” Debs wrote. “They know where I belong under their criminal and corrupting system. It is the only compliment they could pay me.”

His shrinking cult may not be enough to get Trump the Republican nomination, but he would then almost certainly run as a third-party candidate, assuring a Democratic victory in 2024, much as Theodore Roosevelt’s third-party candidacy in 1912 assured Wilson’s victory.

The Bottom Line

Taking away women’s rights mattered. Democracy mattered. Freedom mattered. Equality mattered. Tolerance mattered. January 6 mattered. Promoting violence mattered. The brutal attack on Paul Pelosi and the disgusting reaction to it from prominent “Republicans” mattered. “We’re gonna show Nancy Pelosi the door very shortly. Don’t let it hit you on the backside, Nancy,” Extreme anti-Republic congressman Andy Biggs of Arizona said on Tuesday. “She’s losing the gavel but finding the hammer. Too soon? Is that too soon?” Never would be too soon, you repulsive man.

          Potential future Democratic presidential candidates, among them Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore, emerged.

“For almost 250 years the men and women of the United States armed forces have prevailed against tyranny, often against great odds,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a Veterans Day message to the American people. This week, it was the women and men of the United States voter forces that prevailed against tyranny.

That Star-Spangled Banner is a bit tattered from the anti-Republicans’ glaring red rockets and bombs of bullshit, but our flag yet waves o’er a land of the free and home of the brave.

The feeling is more one of relief than joy. Maybe the fever has broken, but much remains to be done to secure our democracy and freedom. We answered Franklin’s famous question by keeping the Republic—for now.